Winter Weather Forecast for Southeast Michigan

November 23, 2020

Thomas Kovacs

The seasonal weather forecast for the 2020-2021 winter season was released by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The forecast shows that we can expect average temperatures, but a 40% chance of wetter than normal conditions in southeastern Michigan for the period December 1, 2020 - February 28, 2020. The development of La Nina conditions this winter is the predominant factor for the forecast outlook this period. These forecasts are in comparison to the winter seasons for the 30-year period, 1981-2010. They are based on a combination of climate models, statistical models, and climate indices such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation Index, Arctic Oscillation Index, North Atlantic Oscillation Index. They are also based on observed features know to affect long term weather such as soil moisture, snow cover, and sea surface temperatures.

The figures below show the distribution of the probability of 90-day temperature and precipitation relative to the average for the period 1981-2010. The color code is on the bottom of each diagram and represents the chance of above or below average values for the entire 90-day period. Equal chances mean that there is a 33.3% chance of above, below, or average values for the period whereas only values above or below 33.3% chance are colored.